Let's guess the cut off of mains 2019
Hi all ,this is tss again.
After the exam it's our obligation to try to predict the cut off.So let's start..For me assuming same scale of marking cut will be slightly below the last year that is around 760s given the tough GS papers and not easy optional papers across the board,essay I think wouldn't be able compensate the possible dip..
Please share your hearts' content..
@tss Yeah even I feel like cutoff would reduce. But by how much is the question. 760s is not a big reduction. (12 marks) hope it falls a bit more.
@tss most useless discussion in the history of UPSC.
@Tetsuko why did you reply then?
It's only making comparison with last year's experience..forum now seems to be flooded with novices...
2019 cut-off will be a bit lower compared to last year.
1-overall difficulty same(taking all papers into consideration)
last year cut-off discussion was very fruitful.What was inferred by sensible analysts proved correct.Insiders turned out to be all fake.
@abc123 yes..we predicted correctly I think..but those days are gone now..forum has lost that charm both qualitatively and quantitatively..
If correction is same as last year's then I think cutoff should at least fall by 20 marks.
I feel cutoff will certainly go down considering the general feedback regarding the difficulty level of papers. Though not much, I expect around 760.
@abc123 EBC quota factor?
@tss prelims and mains are two different levels, with variation in process and marking,
Even general and obc are nearly on same level in prelims cutoff but in mains there is 40 marks gap in general and obc same may not happen in case of ews as quota for obc is 27 percent while for ews is 10 percent but ews cutoff will always be lower than general by 10 to 15 marks in mains and believe me its substantive enough to make an impact.
My two cents on cutoff -
Paper were nearly tough equivalent to last year
There is high chance of average 10 to 15 marks increase in essay marks,
Gs 2 loss is offset by overall good gs paper 1,
Paper 3 was on similar lines,
Paper 4 was more of theoretical and seems that marking will be similar.
In optionals not much change is visible from last year.
Cutoff will remain 780 to 790 this time.
Reasons - essay plus last year many people were penalised for writing on the margins and other queries leading to 100 to 150 students not getting full rewards and benefiting those who had 774 to 784 marks and have not done silly mistake on writing on the margin etc.
This year following students may get call for interview -
- Not performing bad in essay. Essay scores may lead to advantage for some candidates
- Those who have completed full papers have not left many questions.
- Performed well in ethics case studies.
- Optional eternal factor for selection.
@tss From my experiences in this mains put in perspective with last year's,
- Essay topics were less unnerving but definitely a trap considering the language used in some of the topics. Average marks however, should increase because most candidates who were shocked with their marks have gone a bit conservative this time to secure at least average if not extravagant marks.
- GS 1 was similar to last year and GS 2 was definitely tough. I think average marks would fall a bit GS 2
- GS 3 was i felt tougher than last year because if you went for proper structuring this time, correlating the parts and writing relevant content was eerily difficult. Definitely the marks would be similar to last year but I expect a fall in the average marks. Of course if they decide to bump up the marks like in 2017 nothing can be said.
- GS 4 was tougher than last year like GS2. Too much Pub Ad focus puts normal candidates at a disadvantage because we tend to write similar content in most questions if keywords in the questions match. Case studies became descriptive and required thorough understanding of Probity in governance to solve at least 3 of them diligently. Expect stricter marking in this paper.
- Can only speak about my optional - became a lot more specific this time and I think they are fed up with the gibberish content people tend to write now. So clearly directed students to write specific content and the paper was pretty length. But i see across optional this has been the pattern this time.
Overall assessment is that this time the papers were tougher, cutoff would decrease slightly and optionals of course would be critical for an interview call. I think it is bold to say this but candidates can no longer expect to gain huge advantage in GS papers. Essay we can expect to see people again with 90-96 marks. Structure adherence in GS would differentiate people this time because content would mostly be similar if you grasped the questions well.
I think essay and optional would be key..in gs at par score should be enough..
@tss Yeah that has always been the case hasn't it. Huge advantage in GS might only work this time if optional and essay also work in your favour.
@foxmulder are fir sab me hi achhe karoge to hoga hi na fir..sabhi ma advantage!!!!
@tss Yeah wahi point hai. Sabhi me acha krna hi will get you through ab.
Am I the only one who found GS 1 and GS 4 difficult ?
Please share your thoughts bros.
@Ravs gs1 was not as easy as ppr r making it out to be...actually saara focus gs2 n 3 par hi hai so no attention on gs1 discussion...last yr ke jaisa hi gs1 tha more or less...aur agr checking bhi last yr jaisi hui toh it would definitely give a tough time for us